The B1G+A Model · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026
THIS WEEK'S B1G+A PICKS
Projected scores from the B1G+A Model, posted before kickoff and graded against the final. Every pick stays on the board, hit or miss.
B1G+A RECORD
green = .500 or better · red = below .500| ALL-TIMEsince 10/9/26 · 5 graded | THIS WEEKWeek 6 · 5 graded · 2 pending | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight upprojected winner won | 4-1.800 | 4-1.800 |
| Against the spreadB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings | 4-1.800 | 4-1.800 |
| Over/underB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings | 2-3.400 | 2-3.400 |
| Avg margin errorprojected vs. actual margin | 3.8pts | 3.8pts |
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS
Posted Oct 10, 1:09 AM CT ↗| Game | B1G+A proj. | Pick | ESPN FPI win % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 IU @  NEB | 28–24 | IU | 70% | HITFinal 20–17 |
 BALL @  NU | 13–40 | NU | 99% | HITFinal 14–45 |
 UCLA @  ORE | 29–34 | ORE | 85% | MISSFinal 17–15 |
 ILL @  MSU | 26–22 | ILL | 54% | HITFinal 38–37 |
 MD @  OSU | 16–41 | OSU | 98% | HITFinal 16–45 |
 USC @  PSU | 27–28 | PSU | 62% | PENDING |
 MINN @  PUR | 30–24 | MINN | 53% | PENDING |
Projected score = B1G+A Model (blend of the market-implied score and team scoring stats through Oct 3). Win % = ESPN FPI, not B1G+A. Pending games are graded once the scorecard is re-run.
B1G+A LIVE WIN PROB.
as of Oct 10, 9:50 PM CTLive now
USC95.8%@4.2%PSUUSC 31, PSU 23 · USC Q4 3:59 · USC favored · as of 9:50 PM CT
MINN0.7%@99.3%PURMINN 13, PUR 34 · Q4 11:44 · PUR favored · as of 9:50 PM CT
Final
UCLA100.0%@0.0%OREFINAL · UCLA 17, ORE 15 · last B1G+A live reading 6:10 PM CT
ILL100.0%@0.0%MSUFINAL · ILL 38, MSU 37 · last B1G+A live reading 6:10 PM CT
Live win probability from the B1G+A in-game model. Updates every 15 min.
THE PROOF
everything else on this site backs up the modelAccountability
MODEL RECORD
Full projection scorecard plus win-probability testing on 125,614 held-out 2025 plays, compared with ESPN.
See the scorecard →Receipts
MODEL SCORECARDS
Every card sits on the page it belongs to: game, team, CFP or Model Record, time-stamped from its X post.
Open the scorecards →Playoff
B1G CFP OUTLOOK
Every Big Ten team's record, B1G+A est. CFP rank and ESPN FPI playoff chance, each stamped with its source and date.
Open the outlook →Event · Fan vote on X
THE GOAT PLAYOFF
12 all-time programs, fan-voted round by round. Round 1 voting is live. Champion crowned Sun 12/6.
Open the bracket →LATEST REPORTS
each card opens its post; find more on each game, team, CFP and Model Record page
LIVE SCORES · B1G
From ESPN's public scoreboard, refreshing every 45 seconds. All FBS and Top 25 →