ABOUT & METHODOLOGY

Game projections

B1G+ predicted score averages the Vegas-implied score (from the DraftKings spread and total) with a stat blend: each offense's points per game averaged with the opponent's points allowed per game, using stats through Oct. 3. Win chance from ESPN FPI. Lines from DraftKings via ESPN as of Saturday morning. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.

Grading: a hit means the projected winner won outright. Margin error is the gap between the projected and actual margins. Spread and total leans are graded against the DraftKings line used at posting time.

In-game win probability

An equal-weight blend of a gradient-boosted model with monotone constraints and a logistic regression, trained on 2014–2023 FBS play-by-play (about 1.45 million plays from 8,505 games), validated on 2024 and tested on the held-out 2025 season. Inputs: score, time, possession, field position, down and distance, timeouts and the closing spread.

Playoff picture

B1G+ est. CFP rank averages each team's AP rank and ESPN strength-of-record rank. Field uses the 2026 format: four Power 4 champions (current conference leader by est. rank), the top Group of 6 team, then the seven highest-ranked teams; Notre Dame is in if top 12. Playoff chance is ESPN FPI (updated Oct. 9). Win/loss swings and win % in each game are B1G+ estimates from ESPN FPI ratings. "Ranked" means in this week's AP Top 25.

Live scores

Scores are pulled in your browser from ESPN's public scoreboard feed. We don't store them.

Data stamps

Every figure on the CFP Live Projection, Team Stats and Model Record pages carries the date of the source file it came from. If something's stale, it says so.

Independence

All Big Analytics is fan-made. It is not affiliated with any conference, school, network, sportsbook, bowl or the College Football Playoff. "B1G+A Model" is the name of our in-house model.