@B1GAnalytics
Projection
If the playoff were picked today: a B1G+A projection of the 12-team field built from ESPN rankings, records and strength of record. It is an estimate, not the committee's ranking.
updated Oct 10, 8:14 PM CT
| Seed | Team | Path | Record (ESPN) | AP rank | ESPN SOR rank | ESPN FPI playoff % | B1G+A est. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | Conf. leader (SEC) | 4-1 | 1 | 1 | 91.7% | #1 |
| 2 |  Notre Dame | At-large | 6-0 | 3 | 3 | 89.5% | #2 |
| 3 |  Alabama | At-large | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | 86.8% | #3 |
| 4 |  Miami | Conf. leader (ACC) | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | 93.8% | #4 |
| 5 |  Georgia | At-large | 5-0 | 2 | 8 | 86.2% | #5 |
| 6 |  BYU | Conf. leader (Big 12) | 5-0 | 8 | 9 | 39.5% | #6 |
| 7 |  Ohio State | Conf. leader (Big Ten) | 5-1 | 5 | 12 | 79.2% | #7 |
| 8 |  Texas Tech | At-large | 5-0 | 11 | 7 | 56.1% | #8 |
| 9 |  Indiana | At-large | 6-0 | 7 | 14 | 77.4% | #9 |
| 10 |  Ole Miss | At-large | 4-1 | 9 | 13 | 11.9% | #10 |
| 11 |  Mississippi St | At-large | 4-1 | 17 | 6 | 11.5% | #11 |
| 12 |  James Madison | Top G6 | 5-0 | NR | 27 | 29.1% | #29 |
updated Oct 10, 8:14 PM CT. Records are ESPN overall records and include every game final at update time (30 FBS finals today; not yet counted, in progress: SDSU @ ORST, LSU @ UK, UAB @ MEM, NEV @ UTEP, NDSU @ UNLV, CCU @ MRSH, UGA @ ALA, USC @ PSU, SYR @ UVA, AFA @ NIU, UL @ LT, KU @ UTAH, MINN @ PUR, JMU @ GASO). AP rank: AP Poll Week 6 (released Oct 4). ESPN SOR rank and ESPN FPI playoff % are ESPN figures, last updated by ESPN Oct 10, 3:00 AM CT, so they may not reflect games played since. B1G+A est. rank (ours) orders teams by the average of AP rank and ESPN SOR rank (AP-unranked = 26; ties go to better SOR). Field: top-ranked team in each Power 4 conference plus the top Group of 6 team, then the seven best remaining; seeded 1–12 by est. rank. Highlighted rows are B1G teams. Projection only, not a forecast of the final field. First four out: Utah (#12), Kentucky (#13), Iowa (#14), Florida (#15). Source: ESPN public APIs (FPI, resume, rankings, standings, scoreboard).
| B1G+A est. CFP rank | Team | Record (ESPN) | AP rank | ESPN SOR rank | ESPN FPI rank | ESPN FPI playoff chance | In today's B1G+A field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #7 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 5 | 12 | #1 | 79.2% | Seed 7 |
| #9 | Indiana | 6-0 | 7 | 14 | #7 | 77.4% | Seed 9 |
| #14 |  Iowa | 5-1 | 20 | 11 | #23 | 21.3% | Out |
| #18 |  Oregon | 3-2 | 13 | 23 | #9 | 37.9% | Out |
| #21 |  Wisconsin | 4-1 | NR | 15 | #34 | 11.7% | Out |
| #22 |  UCLA | 5-0 | 21 | 20 | #35 | 11.3% | Out |
| #24 |  Northwestern | 4-1 | NR | 19 | #17 | 16.1% | Out |
| #26 |  USC | 5-1 | 19 | 28 | #19 | 7.8% | Out |
| #28 |  Nebraska | 5-1 | NR | 26 | #13 | 27.1% | Out |
| #35 |  Minnesota | 4-1 | NR | 34 | #59 | 0.3% | Out |
| #53 |  Michigan | 3-2 | NR | 53 | #32 | 0.6% | Out |
| #62 |  Purdue | 2-3 | NR | 62 | #70 | 0% | Out |
| #65 |  Penn State | 3-2 | NR | 65 | #20 | 0.6% | Out |
| #69 |  Michigan St | 2-4 | NR | 69 | #61 | 0% | Out |
| #86 |  Maryland | 2-4 | NR | 86 | #77 | 0% | Out |
| #90 |  Washington | 3-3 | NR | 90 | #55 | 0% | Out |
| #100 |  Illinois | 3-3 | NR | 100 | #53 | 0% | Out |
| #127 |  Rutgers | 1-4 | NR | 127 | #88 | 0% | Out |
All 18 Big Ten teams, sorted by B1G+A est. CFP rank. Same sources and stamps as the table above: records, AP, SOR and FPI from ESPN (updated Oct 10, 8:14 PM CT); est. rank and field are B1G+A.
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): vs MD · 99% win · if win +0.2%, if loss −28.0%
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): @ NEB · 70% win · if win +8.3%, if loss −19.1%
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): @ WASH · 63% win · if win +4.5%, if loss −7.8%
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): vs #21 UCLA · 85% win · if win +4.0%, if loss −22.3%
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): Bye week
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): @ #13 ORE · 15% win · if win +15.8%, if loss −2.9%
16.1%ESPN FPI playoffWeek 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): vs BSU · 100% win · if win +0.0%, if loss −12.7%
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): @ PSU · 45% win · if win +6.4%, if loss −5.2%
Week 6 pregame (Oct 9 FPI): vs #7 IU · 30% win · if win +19.4%, if loss −8.3%
Team cards: ESPN record and FPI figures from the live projection; remaining-vs-ranked chances are B1G+ estimates from ESPN FPI (Playoff Watch data, Oct 9). Cards cover teams in the Playoff Watch file.
